Micron, up 50% this year, could see a huge swing on earnings this week

Release time：2018-03-20
author：Ameya360
source：CNBC
reading：1523

　　Micron's run has been nothing short of miraculous. The stock has surged 50 percent in 2018 and more than 130 percent over the last year.

　　Investors should prepare for some bigger swings from the stock when it reports earnings on Thursday, says Susquehanna derivative strategistStacey Gilbert.

　　Some extra volatility and risk are being priced into this quarter, said Gilbert. Here's what she said investors should look out for.

  • The options market is implying a 9 percent move in either direction when Micron reports, higher than the typical 6 percent move in the previous four quarters. Micron added 4 percent the day after it reported first-quarter earnings in December.

  • It looks as though there is more volatility being priced into this earnings report, but relative to its performance over the past 12 months and in the year to date, trading on Micron remains bullish.

  • Investors are probably using options to gain exposure or protect recent gains. Micron shares have already gained 47 percent this year.

  • Micron remains attractive to Susquehanna largely because of its shift from a commodity-type company to a focus on storage for cloud infrastructure.

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Micron More Upbeat on Outlook, Reportedly Sets 2027 HBM4E Ramp with TSMC for Standard, Custom Logic Dies
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Micron More Upbeat on Outlook, Reportedly Sets 2027 HBM4E Ramp with TSMC for Standard, Custom Logic Dies

　　Two months after its March earnings call, Micron is turning more upbeat on its outlook, while providing additional details on its custom HBM development progress. At the J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference, Micron’s Global Operations EVP Manish Bhatia, via STOCK Analysis transcript, said the company’s first HBM4E will be a JEDEC-standard product, with ramp-up scheduled for 2027.　　While Micron is still using 1-beta DRAM for HBM4, Bhatia said the company is expected to transition to 1-gamma DRAM in the HBM4E era. He also confirmed that the logic dies for both standard and custom HBM4E are expected to be manufactured by TSMC.　　When asked about the margin profile of customized products, Bhatia, according to STOCK Analysis, highlighted that value creation stems from multiple proprietary layers: design innovation, robust core DRAM development, and advanced packaging.　　He emphasized that customization represents the next evolution of this value expansion, and as the value increases, customers are expected to be willing to pay for the added customization.　　Improving Outlook vs. Previous Earnings Call　　According to Bhatia, Micron now expects tight conditions across HBM, DRAM, and NAND to persist well beyond 2026. Thus, he noted that the financial outlook has strengthened since the company’s last earnings call, and it is on track for another substantial record free cash flow in fiscal Q3.　　Notably, Bhatia pointed out that while pricing has largely played out as expected, demand remains very strong. He added that the AI ecosystem is shifting from human interactions to agentic and even machine-to-machine workflows, with these agentic workloads increasingly driving inference demand. As inference takes up a larger share of workloads, memory is increasingly seen as a strategic asset for customers, he said.　　Against this backdrop, Micron said in March that it had secured its first strategic customer agreement—a five-year deal with a large customer. Since then, the company has made meaningful progress on additional SCAs, with other customers also showing strong interest in establishing similar strategic relationships with Micron, including in NAND, Bhatia said.　　India Capacity Reported Booked up　　Amid tight demand, Bhatia also said Micron’s global expansion is accelerating. He noted that its Idaho 1 site is progressing well, with the company pulling forward its wafer output timeline from the second half of 2027 to mid-2027.　　Surging memory demand is also driving ramp-up at Micron’s new semiconductor assembly and test facility in Sanand, Gujarat, which began operations in late February. In a separate report by Business Standard, Micron’s entire memory production capacity in India has been fully booked amid strong demand.　　According to a previous Business Standard report, at full capacity, the facility could account for up to 10% of Micron’s global output, supplying both domestic and international markets.　　Sumit Sadana, executive vice-president and chief business officer at Micron, reportedly told Indian media outlet The Economic Times that the global semiconductor memory shortage triggered by the AI boom is proving far more severe than many companies currently anticipate, with the crunch potentially extending well beyond 2028 despite aggressive capacity expansion across the industry.
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　　Micron Technology has announced that it is exercising its right to purchase Intel’s interest in their joint venture, IM Flash Technologies (IM Flash).　　This comes after the announcement that was made back in July 2018 that the two companies had agreed to conclude their joint development of 3D XPoint technology after the completion of the second-generation node.　　"The IM Flash acquisition will enable Micron to accelerate our R&D and optimise our manufacturing plan for 3D XPoint,” said Micron Technology President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra. “The Utah-based facility provides us with the manufacturing flexibility and highly skilled talent to drive 3D XPoint development and innovation, and to deliver on our emerging technology roadmap.”　　Micron anticipates that the pending acquisition will have no meaningful impact on its financial results and said that it saw no changes to the company’s fiscal 2019 capital expenditures or long-term capital expenditure target.　　Micron said that it expects to pay approximately $1.5billion in cash for the transaction.
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Micron Sees Weak Market Ahead
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Over the past few weeks, signs have increasingly signaled that the two-year boom in memory chip sales is grinding to a halt. Now, U.S. memory chipmaker Micron Technology has provided more indications that a bust cycle is at hand.Micron reported on Tuesday quarterly sales and earnings at the low end of Wall Street estimates but said that it expects revenue to decline significantly in the current quarter due to “weak near-term supply-demand dynamics.”However, Micron executives characterized these dynamics as a short-term bump in the road en route to continued expansion in the second half of next year. Some memory market watchers believe that a memory downturn is likely to last significantly longer.Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron’s president and CEO, told analysts on a conference call following the quarterly report that the downbeat forecast is primarily related to a glut of inventory in the supply chain.“We’re just going through an air pocket here related to primarily inventory adjustments as well as some seasonal, weak mobile demand — including mobile demand” he said.While Micron is implementing some cost control measures such as cutting back on capital spending, said Mehotra, he expects 2019 to be a profitable year for the company. “Micron is better-positioned than ever before to win in this environment with our strong balance sheet and the structural improvements we have made to our operating model in the past several years.”“He’s certainly still giving a very bullish outlook,” said Jim Handy, principal at Objective Analysis, of Mehotra’s view. “He’s looking to trim capital spending now to take care of things late in 2019. My understanding of how the market works is that anything you do now to capital spending isn’t going to have an impact for two years.”Handy used the familiar metaphor of trying to turn around an aircraft carrier to compare to a memory chip company steering through a downturn. “What Micron is doing is turning the steering wheel now with the hopes that the ship will turn by the end of 2019, but it’s really not going to have an impact until later,” he said.Micron’s sales for the quarter ended Nov. 30 totaled $7.91 billion, up 16% year over year but down 5% from the previous quarter. The company’s quarterly net income totaled $3.29 billion, up 23% from the year-ago quarter but down 24% compared to the previous quarter.For the current quarter, Micron expects sales to fall to between $5.7 billion to $6.3 billion, well below the $7.34 billion average of analysts’ estimates, according to Yahoo Finance.
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Micron collaborates with premium German automaker to advance automotive memory technologies
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Micron collaborates with premium German automaker to advance automotive memory technologies

Micron Technology, Inc., (Nasdaq: MU) today announced at Electronica 2018 that it will collaborate with the BMW Group to further advance the development of automotive memory solutions used in vehicles. Memory and storage are key components in accelerating the intelligence and user experience of next-generation systems in vehicles, including in-cabin infotainment as well as advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) technology, which together play an important role in making self-driving autonomous cars a reality.Micron and the BMW Group will intensify their existing efforts toward testing and development of automotive memory solutions at Micron’s state-of-the-art lab in Munich, Germany. Using the Test Automation Framework of the BMW Group as a car emulator platform, the two companies will work together to define and validate memory and storage solutions for next-generation platforms. The collaborative effort will leverage Micron’s memory and storage technology expertise, along with its broad portfolio of DRAM, NAND, and NOR technologies, including LPDRAM, e.MMC, UFS and SSD storage solutions.As a proven memory partner for automotive manufacturers, Micron recognizes the importance of validating and testing new automotive memory technologies for robustness and reliability before releasing them into the market. Micron’s customer lab expertise in developing innovative automotive memory technologies will enable the BMW Group to raise the quality of the driving experience in automobiles of the future.“The incorporation of new features and capabilities in advanced in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) and ADAS, such as voice recognition, hand gesturing and image recognition, are driving an explosive growth in both volatile and nonvolatile memory embedded in vehicles, accelerating intelligence at the edge,” said Giorgio Scuro, vice president of Micron’s automotive division. “Micron has a long-standing record working with automotive industry partners, and this joint initiative with the BMW Group is a testament to our expertise in bringing innovative automotive memory technologies to market.”As a leading memory partner with more than 25 years of experience, Micron provides advanced automotive memory solutions that meet stringent quality, reliability and compliance requirements. Micron’s broad portfolio of volatile and nonvolatile memory products are optimized for automotive and supported by a formal product longevity program.
2018-11-15 00:00 reading：1870
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